The Phone Call That Saved Israel

The key lessons are
1) facts are better than "concepts", so we had better get all the facts we can. With out facts all one has is opinions, and we know how accurate those are.
2) facts can be ignored or mis-understood, so the analysis of the facts had better be robust and not "concept" or "official theory" based, and be open to both challenge and change when new facts appear.
3) nobody can see everything, and every fact is to some extent incomplete.
4) the enemy is not stupid. Everything they do, they do for a purpose based on how they see the facts. Of course they can make mistakes, or not see all the facts, but they do not do so deliberately.

These have always been true, and yet they are continually forgotten, and that is the most important point of all. The most important question is thus "what are we missing, or where are we wrong?" As an example the FBI knew that some of the 9/11 terrorists were taking flying lessons, and did not want to bother with landing, yet this was missed.

last updated august 2016